Demographic Transition in the Past and Projected Five Decades in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1967-2068: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria

Aims: This study assessed the demographic transition in the past and projected five decades in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1967-2068: Empirical evidence from Nigeria.

Study Design: Past and projected time series data (between 1967 and 2068) were used for the study. The 1967-2068 data sets were resorted to due to lack of complete national data.

Place and Duration of Study: Past (between 1967 and 2017) and projected (between 2018 and 2068) five decades in Nigeria.

Methodology: The time series data (1967 to 2068) obtained from the 1950-2099 Interpolated Demographic Data of the United Nations Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, on Births, Deaths and Population levels, were used for the study. The 1967-2068 data sets were resorted to due to lack of complete national data. Data collected were analyzed using birth and death rate indices, demographic transition index, growth rate equation and granger causality statistics. Unit root, co-integration and error correction tests were also carried out.

Results: Results showed that in the past five decades (1967-2017), the mean crude birth and death rates per 1,000 populations were 43.9 and 18.0 respectively; while that of the projected five decades (2018-2068) was 28.9 and 7.9 respectively per 1000 populations. The demographic indices showed that in the past five decades (between 1967 and 2017), Nigeria was at the second stage (stage II) of demographic transition and expected to remain at this stage in the next five decades (between 2018 and 2068). Results also showed that the population growth rate in the past five decades was 2.584 percent, while the growth rate in the next five decades as projected was 2.098 percent. The population growth rate (2.098 percent) in the next five decades (between 2018 and 2068 as projected) is expected to decrease by an average of 0.486 percent. Results also showed that there is a mutual link between demographic transition and population growth.

Conclusion: Nigeria is currently at the second stage of demographic transition and expected to remain at this stage (stage II) in the next five decades. Demographic transition increases the prediction of population growth and vice versa.