Change of moraine-dammed glacial lakes and simulation of glacial lake outburst flood in the Yi’ong Zangbo River basin

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a serious potential threat to the safety of life and property in downstream areas. In this study, moraine-dammed glacial lakes in the Yi’ong Zangbo River basin were recognized based on Landsat ETM+/TM/OLI images in 2000 and 2019. Also, GLOFs for the Jionglaco, the largest glacial lake in this basin, were simulated using the one-dimensional hydrodynamic model. The results show that the total number and area of moraine-dammed glacial lakes in this basin increased by 10 (10.52%) and 5.49 km2 (48.24%) from 2000 to 2019, respectively, in which the area of the Jionglaco increased by 3.22 km2. The peak discharge at the breach outlet for five scenarios with different combinations of breach width (80 and 120 m), depth (2.5 and 5 m), and flood time (1.5 and 3 h) are 489 , 1,327.43, 444.32, 617.47, and 1,570.61 m3/s. With the addition of baseflow in the river, the peak discharge at bridge site 15,138.93 km from Jionglaco, is 1,040.89, 1,724.00, 1,024.85, 1,162.25, and 1,990.52 m3/s. The combination of baseflow in river and the GLOF discharge results in an increasing peak discharge in the further downstream region. However, the arrival of peak discharge in downstream areas is delayed, which increases the chances of people escaping.